New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2024-25, tabled in Parliament on Friday ahead of the Union Budget presentation on February 1, painted an optimistic picture of India’s economic trajectory while outlining key challenges and priorities for sustained growth.
The survey highlighted India’s steady economic performance, addressing crucial themes such as the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision, artificial intelligence (AI), and inflation concerns. It projected a growth rate between 6.3% and 6.8%, aligning with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast of around 6.5% annual growth between FY26 and FY30.
‘Viksit Bharat’ 2047: The Road Ahead
The survey emphasized that India’s aspiration to become a developed nation by 2047 hinges on maintaining an average growth rate of 8% at constant prices for the next two decades. The IMF projects India’s GDP to reach $5 trillion by FY28 and $6.3 trillion by FY30, with a nominal growth rate of 10.2% in dollar terms.
Strong GDP Growth Momentum
India’s economic resilience was underscored by the survey’s growth estimates, which were in line with IMF projections. The upper range of the survey’s estimate exceeds the 6.4% growth predicted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) in its first advance estimates.
Agriculture Sector Remains Robust
Agriculture continued to be a crucial pillar of economic stability, recording a 3.5% growth rate in Q2 FY25. The survey reported a record kharif food grain production of 1,647.05 lakh metric tonnes, marking a 5.7% increase from the previous year. Favorable monsoons and strong reservoir levels have further fueled optimism for a healthy rabi harvest, which could help stabilize food prices.
Inflationary Pressures Persist
While overall inflation has moderated, food price volatility remains a concern. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose from 7.5% in FY24 to 8.4% in FY25 (April-December), with key commodities such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes contributing significantly to price pressures. The survey expressed hope that seasonal price adjustments and a strong rabi harvest would provide some relief but warned of risks posed by global commodity fluctuations and adverse weather conditions.
Artificial Intelligence and Job Disruptions
The Economic Survey acknowledged the dual-edged impact of artificial intelligence on India’s labor market. While AI has the potential to drive productivity, its rapid adoption could disrupt employment in the labor-intensive economy. The survey called for a balanced approach, advocating collaboration between the government, private sector, and academia to ensure inclusive growth. It also warned against complacency, urging policymakers to prepare for AI-driven shifts that could reshape the job market.
As India looks ahead to its ambitious economic goals, the Economic Survey 2024-25 provides a roadmap for balancing growth aspirations with emerging challenges, ensuring sustainable and inclusive development in the years to come.
